With the current rapid spread of disease caused by the new strain of the corona virus (Covid-19), the global aviation industry in 2020 may see losses of up to US $ 113 billion, according to Association calculations. International Air Transport (IATA).
The updated report on the financial impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the global aviation industry is estimated by IATA based on two situations: the disease is limited and widespread
Accordingly, the association predicts that by 2020, the global aviation industry will see a loss of US $ 63 billion for the Covid-19 scenario that spreads to more than 100 cases in each market currently affected by the disease (as of March 2.3. is 70 markets). In the next scenario, if the epidemic spreads beyond this level, the estimated loss is 113 billion dollars.
Earlier on 20.2, in the context of the world recorded less than 30 countries and territories infected, IATA announced an estimated loss of aviation industry is $ 29.3 billion. Covid-19 scenario-based forecast is limited to markets related to China. Since that time, the new strain of corona virus has spread to 90 countries and territories.
The financial market has reacted strongly. Aviation stock prices have fallen by nearly 25% since the outbreak began, about 21 percentage points larger than the decline caused by the SARS crisis in 2003.
In the limited contagious scenario, IATA assessed markets where more than 100 cases of Covid-19 infection were recorded until 2.3. These markets have experienced a sharp decline and then recovered according to the V-graph. At the same time, this scenario also takes into account the decline of consumer confidence in other markets, North America and Asia. – Pacific Ocean and Europe.
Specifically, the number of passengers in the Chinese market is estimated to decrease by 23%, Italy by 24%, Iran by 16%, South Korea by 14%, Japan by 12%, Singapore by 10%, France by 10% and Germany sale 10%. Apart from the aforementioned countries, the rest of Asia will experience a decline in passenger demand by 11%, the rest of Europe by 7% and the Middle East by 7%.
Globally, this drop in demand will reduce passenger revenue by 11 percent, or US $ 63 billion. In particular, the Chinese market accounted for about 22 billion USD, equivalent to 35%. Markets linked to Asia (including China) accounted for 47 billion USD, or nearly 75%.
In the widespread epidemic scenario, IATA applies the same forecasting method but applies to all markets currently reporting from 10 Covid-19 cases as of 2.3. As a result, the global aviation industry lost 19% of passenger revenue, equivalent to 113 billion USD.
From a financial perspective, the size of this loss is equivalent to the loss that the world aviation industry suffered in the global financial crisis in 2007-2008.
The second scenario is more likely to occur, in the context that the Covid-19 epidemic has now spread to 96 countries and territories. Updated to 7am this morning 8.3, Worldometer recorded more than 103,000 people worldwide infected with 3,466 deaths.
Alexandre de Juniac, general director of IATA, said that at present, many airlines cut capacity and take urgent measures to reduce costs. These firms are working hard to maintain their operations to ensure the mission of connecting the world’s economies, and urgently need the support packages from governments to be considered for reduction of taxes, fees and support policies. other.
“The results produced by Covid-19 are almost unprecedented. In less than two months, the outlook for the aviation industry in many parts of the world has become negative. While it is still unclear how the virus will develop, whether impacting the market at US $ 63 billion or US $ 113 billion, this is still a crisis, ”said IATA general manager.
Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have experienced a significant decline, with Brent oil prices falling about 13 USD / barrel. This could help cut $ 28 billion on fuel bills by 2020, but not much of the devastation caused by Covid-19 to aviation transport needs.
-According to: Nextbrand collected and compiled-
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